Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 [Download Prediction Markets White Paper Link Dataset Compilation]

Information Futures Markets (InformationFuturesMarkets.com/) is a Subject Tracer™ Information Blog developed and created by the Virtual Private Library™. It is designed to monitor information futures markets on the World Wide Web and listed below. We always welcome suggestions of additional sites and resources to be added to this comprehensive listing and please submit by clicking here. This site has been developed and maintained by Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A.; Internet expert, author, keynote speaker, and consultant. His latest white papers include Searching the Internet, Academic and Scholar Search Engines and Sources, and Knowledge Discovery Resources 2014. All of his Subject Tracer™ Information Blogs and his white papers are available from WhitePapers.us.  His latest monthly column is available by clicking here. Subscribe to his free monthly Awareness Watch™ Newsletter. Learn more by clicking here.

Prediction Markets:

Articles, Papers and Journals

A Good Idea With Bad Press by By Hal R. Varian
http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2003-07-31.html

A Market for Terrorism Information by C. Gopinath
http://www.thehindubusinessline.in/2003/08/25/stories/2003082500090900.htm

Can betting predict terrorism?
http://www.onlinecasinonews.com/ocnv2_1/article/article.asp?id=5254

CFTC Targets Prediction Markets, Hits First Amendment                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            http://techliberation.com/2012/12/12/cftc-targets-prediction-markets-hits-first-amendment/

Charts for Prediction and Chance by Mario Markus
http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/p516

Consensus Point Prediction Markets Blog                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            http://www.consensuspoint.com/prediction-markets-blog/

Don’t Bet On It – The Economist                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21567382-intrade-retreats-american-regulators-dont-bet-it

Do Prediction Markets Produce Well-Calibrated Probability Forecasts?                                                                                                                                                                                            http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02561.x/abstract

Economists Explore Betting Markets as Prediction Tools by Erica Klarreich Science News Online
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2307/4019085/abstract

Edward Tufte: Ask E.T. Forum – Prediction Markets
http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0000fs&topic_id=1

Foretelling the Future: Online Prediction Markets by John Stossel and Maxim Lott
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Business/Stossel/story?id=4813558&page=1

Gaming Prediction Markets – Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker                                                                                                          http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/5027877/chen_algorithmica_author.pdf?sequence=1

How To Follow the Prediction Markets in Real Time                                                                                                                                                                                                                             http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/10/how-to-make-money-on-the-presidential-prediction-markets-1.html

Idea Futures. Prediction Markets, Information Markets by Robin Hanson
http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html

Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation For a Sales Forecasting Problem by Kay-Yut Chen and Charles R. Plott
http://ideas.repec.org/p/clt/sswopa/1131.html

International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence
http://www.inderscience.com/jhome.php?jcode=ijbfmi

Investopedia – Prediction Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prediction-market.asp#axzz2I3bcn800

Issues In Information Market Design by Robin Hanson
http://hanson.gmu.edu/infomkts.html

Journal of Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           http://econpapers.repec.org/article/bucjpredm/

Mercury’s Blog by Jed Christiansen
http://blog.mercury-rac.com/

Midas Oracle – Prediction Markets For All by Chris. F. Masse (Last Updated 2011)
http://www.midasoracle.org/

Mining the Web to Predict Future Events by Kira Radinsky and Eric Horvitz                                                                                                                                                                                                               http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/horvitz/future_news_wsdm.pdf

Prediction Market “Bets Of Bitcoin” Available to U.S. Customers                                                                                                                                                                              http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/12/06/prediction-market-bets-of-bitcoin-available-to-u-s-customers/

Prediction Market Journal
http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/index

Prediction Market Manipulation: A Case Study                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/2012/11/prediction-market-manipulation-case.html

Prediction Markets by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
http://www.nber.org/papers/w10504

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers                                                                http://www.nber.org/papers/w18222

Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    http://www.nber.org/papers/w12083

Prediction Markets, Mechanism Design, and Cooperative Game Theory                                                                                                                                                                         http://www.cs.duke.edu/~conitzer/predictionUAI09.pdf

Predict the Future? You Can Bet on It by Peter Wayner
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/02/technology/circuits/02mark.html?th

Pricing Political Risks with Predicition Markets by Justin Wolfers
http://siepr.stanford.edu/publicationsprofile/879

Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls by Gary Stix of Scientific American
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=markets-predict-outcome-better-than-polls

The Case for Terrorism Futures by Noah Shachtman
http://www.wired.com/politics/law/news/2003/07/59818

The Coming Revolution in Information Markets by Robert W. Hahn, Paul C. Tetlock
http://sd-cite.iisd.org/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=26915

The Definitive Guide To Marketing Metrics and Analytics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               http://pages2.marketo.com/dg2-marketing-metrics.html

The Failure of State-Designed Markets By Casey Khan
http://www.mises.org/daily/1321

The Good Side of the Terror Futures Idea (Yes, There Is One) By Dr. David M. Pennock
http://dpennock.com/pam.html

The Lull of Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             http://joshblackman.com/blog/2013/01/11/the-lull-of-prediction-markets/

The Real Power of Artificial Markets
http://artificialmarkets.com/

The Wisdom of Public Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             http://blog.longnow.org/02008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/

Toronto Prediction Market Blog (Last updated June 2012)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          http://torontopm.wordpress.com/

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
http://www.bocowgill.com/GooglePredictionMarketPaper.pdf

Wait, Lets Talk About This by Ken Nesmith, Andrew C. Thomas, and Jonathan Wang
http://tech.mit.edu/V123/N36/36dissent_.36e.html

What Weird Futures Can You Buy? A Guide To Online Prediction Markets by Brendan I. Koerner
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2003/07/whatweird_futures_can_you_buy.html

Wikipedia – Prediction Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

Workers Place Your Bets – Special Report – Prediction Markets by Rachael King
http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2006-08-02/workers-place-your-bets

 

RESOURCES

AgilOne – Predictive Intelligence Application
http://agilone.com/products/application/

blab – Predictive Social Intelligence
http://www.blabpredicts.com/

BlogShares – Fantasy Blog Share Market
http://www.blogshares.com/

Center for Gaming Research
http://gaming.unlv.edu/

Consensus Point – Foresight Prediction Market Server
http://www.consensuspoint.com/solutions/

DataFox – Understand and Predicts Trends In the Private Tech Sector
http://www.datafox.co/

DataRobot – Build Better Predictive Models – Faster
http://www.datarobot.com/

Foresight Exchange
http://www.ideosphere.com/

Future Brief
http://futurebrief.wordpress.com/

Google Prediction API                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 https://cloud.google.com/products/more-products

Hollywood Stock Exchange!
http://www.hsx.com/

Ideas Futures Prediction Markets Systems
http://sourceforge.net/projects/ideafutures/

I Know First – Daily Market Forecast
http://iknowfirst.com/

Imagination-Engines
http://www.Imagination-Engines.com/

Imagining the Internet – Elon/Pew Predictions Database
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/imagining/

InfoBionics – Flexible Data Mining Applications
http://www.infobionics.com/

Inkling Markets – Prediction Market Platforms
http://inklingmarkets.com/

International Futures Model (IFs)
http://www.ifs.du.edu/

InTrade – Futures Trading Exchange for Politics, Current Events, Financial Indicators & other Unique Contracts (ceased trading activity 2013)
http://www.intrade.com/

Iowa Electronic Markets
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

Kaggle – Data Mining, Forecasting and BioInformatics Competitions
http://kaggle.com/

Long Bets – Accountable Predictions
http://www.longbets.org/

News Futures
http://www.newsfutures.com/

NITLE Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     http://markets.nitle.org/

Open Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      http://openpredictionmarkets.org/

PAM – Policy Analysis Market
http://hanson.gmu.edu/policyanalysismarket.html

Policy Futures in Education
http://www.wwwords.co.uk/pfie/

Prediction Market Industry Association
http://www.pmindustry.org/

Prediction Markets Tools                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       http://prediction-markets.qmarkets.net/home

Predict Wall Street – The Stock Market Prediction Community
http://www.predictwallstreet.com/

Probability Web
http://probweb.berkeley.edu/

PunditTracker – Bringing Accountability To The Prediction Industry
http://www.pundittracker.com/

Recorded Future – Robust Tools for Temporal and Predictive Analysis
https://www.recordedfuture.com/

simExchange – Prediction Market for Video Games
http://www.simexchange.com/

StrategyPage’s Prediction Market
http://www.strategypage.com/prediction_market/

Tellagence – Predicts How Information Will Move
http://www.tellagence.com/

The Opinion Exchange
http://www.opinion-exchange.com/

Topsy – Twitter Search, Monitoring and Analytics
http://topsy.com/

TradeSports
http://www.tradesports.com/

TradeSmarter™ – Innovative Binary Option Trading Platform
http://www.tradesmarter.com/

Trends 24
http://trends24.in/

Your Encore – Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   http://www.yourencore.com/solutions/prediction-markets.aspx

Zocalo – Toolkit for Building Prediction Markets
http://zocalo.sourceforge.net/

(c) 2014 Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A.

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