Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 [Download Prediction Markets White Paper Link Dataset Compilation]

Prediction Markets ( and Information Futures Markets ( are  Subject Tracer™ Information Blogs developed and created by the Virtual Private Library™. They are designed to monitor prediction and information futures markets on the World Wide Web and listed below. We always welcome suggestions of additional sites and resources to be added to this comprehensive listing and please submit by clicking here. This site has been developed and maintained by Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A.; Internet expert, author, keynote speaker, and consultant. His latest white papers include Searching the Internet, Academic and Scholar Search Engines and Sources, and Knowledge Discovery Resources 2015. All of his Subject Tracer™ Information Blogs and his white papers are available from  His latest monthly column is available by clicking here. Subscribe to his free monthly Awareness Watch™ Newsletter. Learn more by clicking here.

Prediction Markets:

Articles, Papers and Journals

A Good Idea With Bad Press by By Hal R. Varian

A Market for Terrorism Information by C. Gopinath

Can betting predict terrorism?

CFTC Targets Prediction Markets, Hits First Amendment                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Charts for Prediction and Chance by Mario Markus

Consensus Point Prediction Markets Blog                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Don’t Bet On It – The Economist                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Do Prediction Markets Produce Well-Calibrated Probability Forecasts?                                                                                                                                                                                  

Economists Explore Betting Markets as Prediction Tools by Erica Klarreich Science News Online

Edward Tufte: Ask E.T. Forum – Prediction Markets

Foretelling the Future: Online Prediction Markets by John Stossel and Maxim Lott

Gaming Prediction Markets – Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker                                                                                                

How To Follow the Prediction Markets in Real Time                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Idea Futures. Prediction Markets, Information Markets by Robin Hanson

Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation For a Sales Forecasting Problem by Kay-Yut Chen and Charles R. Plott

International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence

Investopedia – Prediction Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Issues In Information Market Design by Robin Hanson

Journal of Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Mercury’s Blog by Jed Christiansen

Midas Oracle – Prediction Markets For All by Chris. F. Masse (Last Updated 2011)

Mining the Web to Predict Future Events by Kira Radinsky and Eric Horvitz                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Prediction Market “Bets Of Bitcoin” Available to U.S. Customers                                                                                                                                                                    

Prediction Market Journal

Prediction Market Manipulation: A Case Study                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Prediction Markets by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers                                                      

Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Prediction Markets, Mechanism Design, and Cooperative Game Theory                                                                                                                                                               

Predict the Future? You Can Bet on It by Peter Wayner

Pricing Political Risks with Predicition Markets by Justin Wolfers

Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls by Gary Stix of Scientific American

The Coming Revolution in Information Markets by Robert W. Hahn, Paul C. Tetlock’s%20Last%20%20Frontier.pdf

The Definitive Guide To Marketing Metrics and Analytics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

The Failure of State-Designed Markets By Casey Khan

The Good Side of the Terror Futures Idea (Yes, There Is One) By Dr. David M. Pennock

The Journal of Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

The Lull of Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

The Real Power of Artificial Markets

The Wisdom of Public Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Toronto Prediction Market Blog (Last updated June 2012)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

Wait, Lets Talk About This by Ken Nesmith, Andrew C. Thomas, and Jonathan Wang

What Weird Futures Can You Buy? A Guide To Online Prediction Markets by Brendan I. Koerner

Wikipedia – Prediction Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Workers Place Your Bets – Special Report – Prediction Markets by Rachael King



AgilOne – Predictive Intelligence Application

Augur Project                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

blab – Predictive Social Intelligence

BlogShares – Fantasy Blog Share Market

Center for Gaming Research

Consensus Point – Foresight Prediction Market Server

DataFox – Understand and Predicts Trends In the Private Tech Sector

DataRobot – Build Better Predictive Models – Faster

Foresight Exchange

Future Brief

Google Prediction API                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Hollywood Stock Exchange!

Ideas Futures Prediction Markets Systems

I Know First – Daily Market Forecast


Imagining the Internet – Elon/Pew Predictions Database

InfoBionics – Flexible Data Mining Applications

Inkling Markets – Prediction Market Platforms

International Futures Model (IFs)

InTrade – Futures Trading Exchange for Politics, Current Events, Financial Indicators & other Unique Contracts (ceased trading activity 2013)

Iowa Electronic Markets

Kaggle – Data Mining, Forecasting and BioInformatics Competitions

Long Bets – Accountable Predictions

Minitigo Predictive Marketing Platform

News Futures

NITLE Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Open Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

PAM – Policy Analysis Market

Policy Futures in Education

Predict Wall Street – The Stock Market Prediction Community

Probability Web

PunditTracker – Bringing Accountability To The Prediction Industry

Recorded Future – Robust Tools for Temporal and Predictive Analysis

simExchange – Prediction Market for Video Games

StrategyPage’s Prediction Market

Tellagence – Predicts How Information Will Move

Topsy – Twitter Search, Monitoring and Analytics


TradeSmarter™ – Innovative Binary Option Trading Platform

Trends 24

Your Encore – Prediction Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Zocalo – Toolkit for Building Prediction Markets

(c) 2015 Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A.

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